2017 Kentucky Derby Longshots

Of all the roads to the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, the one that begins in the great state of Louisiana this weekend may be (but definitely wasn’t) what inspired poet Robert Frost to pen “The Road Not Taken.”

2017 Kentucky Derby Longshots — Tapwrit. 8:25 AM Brandon Watson. This year's Kentucky Derby has a couple of leaders at the front of the pack and then several other horses that seem. 2020 Kentucky Derby preview. The 2020 Kentucky Derby is scheduled to be run at 7:01 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs in Louisville. As Kentucky Derby long shot Patch got his post-gallop bath in front of fans and media Tuesday morning, one of the onlookers pointed out the one-eyed bay colt and told a friend “every mother. 2017 Kentucky Derby Longshots; Betting Picks. Facebook; twitter; mail; rss; Sat - 16:50 EDT. 2017 Kentucky Derby Longshots. Underdogs With The Best Chance.

The fact is: in the history of the Run for the Roses — and, remember, the Derby has been around since 1875, when the first recorded hockey game took place in Montreal… followed by the first recorded hockey fight — no horse has ever worn the roses after last competing in The Pelican State.

Now, a few — well, four, to be exact — Derby winners did run in Louisiana preps, including Saturday’s LeComte Stakes, but none of them made their final start in Cajun Country.

KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS THAT PREPPED IN LOUISIANA

2003-Funny Cide (third in Louisiana Derby)
2002-War Emblem (fifth in LeComte, sixth in Risen Star)
1996-Grindstone (won Louisiana Derby)
1924-Black Gold (won Louisiana Derby)

With this in mind, some might get the idea that the LeComte is of no consequence, but that would be a mistake, as some very nice horses have raced in the LeComte. In addition to the aforementioned Kentucky Derby (GI) and Preakness (GI) winner War Emblem, Ron the Greek, Hard Spun and Oxbow all captured Grade I events subsequent to their participation in the LeComte.

Here’s a look at this year’s field:

COMMENTS: This guy could be the pacesetter and his most recent late speed ration (LSR) was not bad. Still, those figures were earned against $30,000 maiden claimers. This is a huge step up the class ladder.

COMMENTS: Son of Arch is still a maiden but put in his best effort — by far — in his last start over the local oval, where he recorded his best speed figure and speed rations. He’s a tough sell on the win end, but I could easily see him hitting the board.

COMMENTS: His last race was great, but a similar trip puts him about 12 lengths back at the first call on Saturday (if the projected ESR of -7 proves to be correct). I’d insist on double-digit odds.

COMMENTS: Rated beautifully after taking off the blinkers last time and trainer Tom Amoss is great in graded stakes (+73 percent ROI in his last 73 starts). He’s a contender.

2017 Kentucky Derby Results

COMMENTS: Steve Asmussen trainee is the morning line favorite — and he looks vulnerable to me. His last race was pretty good… but only pretty good; I don’t think a repeat of that performance will get it done on Saturday. Plus, I’m not really enamored with Untrapped’s sire. From 146 foals to race, Trappe Shot has produced exactly one graded stakes winner (Fish Trappe Road, who won the Grade III Dwyer at a mile). At low odds, this guy is a pass for me.

COMMENTS: After a really poor debut — from a speed and pace figure standpoint — on the dirt, this colt tried the grass and took to it like Cheech and Chong. I don’t think a return to the main track is what the doctor ordered.

COMMENTS: Every time this guy has recorded a moderate (-5) ESR or better, he has suffered the consequences late. Given that he prefers to be near the pace and Saturday’s pace is expected to be relatively quick, I’m not confident this son of Tapizar will be around at the finish.

COMMENTS: From a pace profile standpoint, this guy fits perfectly, as he recorded a -7 ESR and -3 LSR last time at Churchill Downs. I give him a big shot to win on Saturday.

COMMENTS: Larry Jones trainee is the most intriguing entrant in the race, in my opinion. Not only does he have a dominant overall speed edge over his 11 rivals on Saturday, but he’s got enough early zip to set the pace in Saturday’s Fair Grounds feature. And outside of the Sugar Bowl, where he tried — with moderate success — to rate, he’s finished very fast (median LSR of -3, also tops in the field) in all of his races. To me, he’s the horse to beat.

COMMENTS: Wired a decent field of maidens last time, but takes a big jump in class here. Connections are great, but I’d want a price.

COMMENTS: Made a big intermediate move in the Delta Jackpot before fading and shows up with Lasix on Saturday, indicating he bled in that race. Prior to that, the son of Congrats won the restricted Sleepy Hollow Stakes in impressive fashion. Looks like a probable overlay to me.

COMMENTS: This dude is fast and hails from a promising young sire in Tale of Ekati, who has already produced a graded stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles (Verve’s Tale, Grade III Comely Stakes). Outside post position hurts his chances, but he looks like a top contender.

Kentucky Derby

Saturday, September 5, 2020 – 7:00 PM EDT

2017 Kentucky Derby Pps

Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky

Update September 5, 2020: Browse the latest Kentucky Derby winner odds on SBR Odds.

2017 Kentucky Derby Horse List

The draw has been made for this year’s Kentucky Derby and it perfectly makes sense what has happened in 2020. On Tuesday they had the post positions for the 146^th running of the Kentucky Derby. For the first time since 2003, the field will be less than 20, with 18 horses officially entered. As expected, Tiz the Law is the favorite and an immense one at that, with 3/5 horse racing odds on the morning line. That is the lowest odds since Arazi was 9/10 back in 1992 (Finished 8^th).

However, there is a major difference in the situation of the two horses that play directly into the making of the odds from top sportsbooks like 5Dimes and others.

As you are likely aware, the Run for the Roses is annually held on the first Saturday of May and horses and trainers have tried to groom and figure out which horses in their stable that are the best three-years-olds and can compete to make history.

Arazi was the two-year-old champion in both North America and Europe, as well as European Horse of the Year coming into that race. But four months is a long time in the maturity of a horse of three years. Tiz the Law won the Belmont and Travers convincingly and enters the Derby with a proven record and several competitors that might have run back in May were injured or have not advanced.

Here is the 2020 part. Tiz the Law drew the next to last post at 17 and since the field was expanded to 20 runners, that is the one position that has never won the race in 41 starts.

Let’s dig deeper into the race to have a greater understanding of what might happen.

2017 Kentucky Derby Chart

The Field, Odds and Post Positions

Here are the current odds, in order of post position (trainer, jockey in parentheses):

1. Finnick the Fierce (Hernandez Rey, Martin Garcia) 50-1 odds
2. Max Player (Steven M. Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
3. Enforceable (Mark E. Casse, Adam Beschizza) 30-1
4. Storm the Court (Peter Eurton, Julien Leparoux) 50-1
5. Major Fed (Greg Foley, James Graham) 50-1
6. King Guillermo (Avila Juan Carlos, Samy Camacho) 20-1
7. Money Moves (Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano) 30-1
8. South Bend (Bill Mott, Tyler Gaffalione) 50-1
9. Mr. Big News (Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Sáez) 50-1
10. Thousand Words (Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux)15-1
11. Necker Island (Chris A. Hartman, Miguel Mena) 50-1
12. Sole Volante (Patrick L. Biancone, Luca Panici) 30-1
13. Attachment Rate (Dale L. Romans, Joe Talamo) 50-1
14. Winning Impression (Dallas Stewart, Joe Rocco Jr.) 50-1
15. Ny Traffic (Saffie A. Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez) 20-1
16. Honor A.P. (John A. Shirreffs, Mike Smith) 5-1
17. Tiz the Law (Barclay Tagg, Manny Franco) 3-5
18. Authentic (Bob Baffert, John Velazquez) 8-1

The first thing that jumps out is not only the massive favorite way to the outside but the two horses that would be considered the closest competitors are on either side of #17 in Honor A.P. and Authentic.

Honor A.P. is the Santa Anita Derby winner and is the best of the West Coast and will have Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith aboard.

Authentic has a top trainer in Bob Baffert and a very good rider in John Velazquez. The question on #18, does he want to or can he maintain a 1 ¼ to win this race?

Longshots That Can Win or Cash

We have a lot of fresh faces as only two, besides Tiz the Law, have advanced from the Belmont Stakes.

Max Player (30-1) finished third at Belmont and looked good down the backstretch, running evenly (the same speed) with Dr. Post, who finished second, the last 300+ yards. He followed up that effort with another show finish in the Travers. Will Max Player win, unlikely but he deserves consideration in any trifecta and wheel wagers.

Sole Volante (30-1) was chosen by many horseplayers to be a top-three finisher at Belmont and finished a disappointing sixth. However, that’s one race and this horse was considered a contender going into that race for a reason.

King Guillermo (20-1) was a longshot winner in the Tampa Bay Derby and was second at the Arkansas Derby. He’s been off four months but trainer Juan Carlos Avila has trained him to race at Churchill and he has a nice draw position.

Besides Authentic, Baffert also has another horse in this race, Thousand Words (15-1) and word has it he thinks TW can be a real factor and trusts Florent Geroux to follow the game plan.

Top Picks for the Derby

Typically, the Kentucky Derby is what has people thinking about the upcoming summer and it is a very optimistic time.

Tiz the Law not only won two of the biggest races in the summer but set the table by running first in the Holy Bull (G-3 stakes) at Gulfstream Park in February and the Florida Derby (G1) in March. This is the best three-year-old this year and just has to do on the oval.

Betting TtL to win or even across the board is not going to win much unless you bet a lot. That means trying to match #17 with partners in exacta, trifecta and possibly superfecta horse racing bets.

With this in mind, as we do this piece days before the race and this handicapper has his eyes on Honor A.P., Thousand Words, Max Player, and King Guillermo on what will be various tickets to go along with Tiz the Law.

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